Promised follow up from Post September 26, 2007

I have heard many people remark to me over the years that the best way to buy real estate is to do so from a desperate seller, and in negotiating with them to “stick it to them”, “grind ‘em down”, or “make them hurt”. There are few problems with this.

First, and probably most critical, is the moral/ethical questions. Is all of life about money and the accumulating of more of it? Business is business, but there is no reason to behave as the above statements portray. If you get good feelings from doing this to ANYONE, EVER, don’t bother reading the rest of this post. We won’t agree on much.

There are really three kinds of sellers in the market place: Emotional, Rational, and Desperate. We will tailor our comments today with a new construction seller in mind (that’s my world), but most everything would transfer to a resale property as well.

Emotional:
Emotions are ammoral - neither good nor bad. It is how you use them, or allow them to mold your decisions. Selling a home is one arena where emotions MUST be left outside the door. The marketplace is always chock full of emotional sellers, and today it is out of control. There really is no reason to buy from an emotional seller - their price is too high, they are unrealistic on terms, and in this market you have better options.

In our LAKES community, there are so many emotional sellers, it appears that the market is glutted with available homes. Truth understood, there are very few homes realistically for sale, but there are LOADS of homes that emotional sellers have “on market” hoping to “get lucky”. Let me illustrate two recent listings;
A) Rambler built & sold in 2004. Closing price high $800’s. Like any new home, it would be worth low $800’s after move in, and typically begin to appreciate slowly at 3%-4% annually normal for the Twin Cities. It’s value today should be in the neighborhood of $900 - $925,000 in a normal market. It is “on market” for $1,250,000, even though recent comparable sales have been $880,000 for new, and $780,000 for used.
B) Similar rambler, same community, - 2004 sold at $975,000 +/-, currently on market for $1,250,000 also.

Interestingly, there is not one single comparable sale that would indicate either of these homes would sell for $1,250,000. It is clear these sellers both determined their priced primarily on emotion, and did not consult comparable SOLDS in the community.

Rational:
Selling a home is primarily a business transaction. Rational thinking needs to prevail. Fair play, honesty, legal dealings, and sense of humor are other neccessary components you’ll need. A rational seller has ALL the advantages in the market. They have asked and answered the following questions, and best if done with the help of a real estate professional:
A) What are the last 3-4 comparable sold homes in my close proximity? How does my home compare - according to real estate pro’s in the area.
B) What 2-3 cosmetic items on my home do I need to improve immediately. Only an un-involved outsider can give objective advice here.
C) How many days does it take to sell a home in my area? And, what are the comparable actives now on market I need to be below on price?
D) Have I made up my mind to move, and if no offers come in for 30 days, what will I lower my price to in that circumstance?

After these honest questions are asked and aswered, your home will be on market with a correct price, and proper expectations. Your home will get showings, it will get offers, or you will lower its price. It will sell, and probably rather quickly if it is not an odd property. Rational sellers do not mind getting a few dollars less because when they buy in today’s market, they will pay a few dollars less.

Desperate:
Contrary to what some might think, buying from a desperate seller (especially if it is new construction!!!) is rarely a great idea. The word desperate usually indicates a person who is in distress and likely may not be thinking clearly. If it is a builder, and they are desperate, it would usually indicate they are not the best at business, and probably are near being gone. The few dollars you would hypothetically save will almost always prove false later.

Let’s consider an example;
Currently in our market there are quite of few new or newer expensive homes for sale in Ham Lake. A few years ago this rural suburb saw a boom of large home building by small builders - we call them gypsy builders. The only reason you might want to live there would be a wooded lot, but it ends pretty quick there. No good roads, no retail, no commercial tax base, no schools, and poor comprehensive plan. Now that the market has slowed, it is almost impossible to sell these large homes - families with children do not want to live there. There are new construction homes built by individual operators who do not have the skill, design experience, nor financial strength to sell them at a loss. So they sit, and sit, and sit - until the bank gets them back. Ultimately they are sold for less than the hard cost to construct them - and the future is going to prove even that was not a great deal. It was built by second-rate builders, usually with second-tier subcontractors, and now has no warranty.

Contrast that with a suburb like Maple Grove where all the problems mentioned above do not really exist. Builders, including larger companies, are building and selling homes at drastically reduced profits, but if they downsized their staffs, they will be fine. The “desperate” builders are not there, never were. Those types were banished to lesser locations.

All said, the things would cause a builder to become “desperate” do not typically exist with the top tier of operators.

If you have the choice today, you want to find a “realistic, willing, honest” seller. That is the winning combination for the location you like.

Help your sellers understand the market.

Recent well written article from Chris Galler of the Minnesota Association of REALTORS. He does a great job of helping agents understand how to help home sellers understand that the market determines value, not what we “want” or “hope” or “need” to get from our home.
Read on . . .

Is your home an investment? Should it be?

Most of us in America have come to view our home primarily as an investment, and secondarily as a place we live. I think this has contributed to the irrational behavior concerning home values so many have exhibited in the past few years.

FEAR & GREED. There is a newsletter in the investing world that repeated reminds its readers that these are the only real factors that make the stock market move for most consumer-investors. They buy out of greed, and sell out of fear. This has also started to make its way in to the home marketplace. Homeowners have gotten greedily attached to what they “THOUGHT” their homes were worth recently, and now that has paralyzed them from thinking lucidly. As they have watched homes on market drop in price, FEAR has kicked in and caused similar paralysis. Just like their investments, and even more so, we are all extremely emotional about our homes. And generally, though not always, the emotional is in competition with the rational.

A home is not primarily an investment - at least not in the traditional sense of the word. Most people think of an investment as money you purchase something with in the plan (hope?) that it will increase in value. If you have bought a residence with that as the main motivation you made a bad investment. There are many far better places to put your money that are safer, give more more consistent returns, and require little or no upkeep.

• Wednesday, September 19, 2007 - Volunteerism - Minneapolis - St. Paul is tops!

Help your fellow American . . .

What a fun day I had today. The sun was out, 73 degrees, fall is in the air. About 20 real estate agents from around the north metro area gathered at the LOWES Coon Rapids parking lot for a day of well organized volunteerism. The Twin Cities Habitat for Humanity chapter has already sent 17 homes to the Katrina damaged areas and the local Realtor boards signed up to build another.

Today were building home #18 which we then loaded on a flat bed for its trip to Biloxi, Mississippi. The panelized sections are then assembled by a team there and finished out over a several week period. It will be a nice 3 bedroom & 2 bathroom rambler home like the one pictured here.

We all had fun, got to share some current stories about the difficult real estate market, and had lunch together. Interesting, everyone there was a realtor, and we all had upbeat attitudes about our profession, and there was no complaining. They were all top shelf people willing to take a day away from work and help someone they will never meet this side of eternity.

Later this afternoon, I was in for a haircut and the magazine I read as I waited was the “Where to Retire” August issue. The first story I turned to was MIDWESTERNERS RATE HIGH IN VOLUNTEERING. It lists the top 50 cities in America for volunteerism and Minneapolis-St. Paul was #1 ahead of Salt Lake City. Other notables in the top 10 included Omaha, Portland, Kansas City, and Milwaukee.

As a native Minneapolitan, I am very proud, but not surprised. Transplants usually love the Twin Cities if they give it a chance. Those of us who have always known it as home don’t need any convincing.

MARKET ANALYSIS - What should you look for?

One of the common activities all real estate agents engage in is preparing a market analysis of an existing home that a potential seller is considering putting up for sale. Most sellers will have more than one agent prepare an analysis, and they should do so.

The “Listing Presentation” is a primary activity most real estate agents seek to continually improve their skills in doing. Having been in this industry for a dozen years, I am amazed how many sellers get pulled in by a slick sales pitch, and then live in frustration with an silent, absentee agent. A hard working, professional, knowledgeable, ethical agent is unfortunately rare, and hence worth what they charge.

Common Misconceptions:
1) Prices of other homes for sale in the area are an important indicator of our home’s value.
2) Custom or unique items in our home make it worth more than comparables in the neighborhood.
3) There is no harm in starting the price “a little” high just in case someone comes along and is willing to pay it.
4) I am capable of being objective about my home - its decorating, furnishing, presentation.Observations on the above Misconceptions:

1) Homes in the Twin Cities in 2007 sell in an average of 60 days +/-, depending on exact zip code. “Actives” are simply homes that are for sale, and may or may not have any correlation to your home’s value. Recent “solds” are the only true reliable indicator of local values. A lesser known indicator is “canceled” and “expired” listings - it will show what an overpriced property looks like.

2) We ALL think we have the best home on the street because we have the best lot-biggest garage-nicest kitchen- . . . . Experience has shown that there is very little difference in the eye of a buyer (especially in a slow market) on most things sellers think are priceless. This is especially true if you bought your home when new. Many new home upgrades, lot premiums, and custom options are practically worthless in a resale home environment. You may have spent $4,000 for a unique fireplace mantle treatment, but most buyers won’t pay a dollar for it. If you have remodeled or upgraded your home in an unusual manner, the money you spent may not recoverable. If comparables in your neighborhood all have vinyl floors in the master bath and you have put in ceramic, it may help you sell faster, but not likely for more money.

3) Facts consistently prove that homes which are overpriced take longer to sell AND bring less than similar homes that were priced correctly from the starting point. In the 2007 slow real estate market there are no over-anxious buyers who are buying homes on an impulse and paying inflated asking prices.  On the contrary, buyers are viewing more properties than ever before and making careful, well thought out decisions.

4) We have all decorated our homes in a manner we like and are proud of.  Our home is an extension of who we are, and we naturally assume others will have the same warm, emotional, and positive feelings about it. This is why we think it is worth more than it indeed is - because we are emotionally attached to it.

MESSAGE:
A good market analysis is crucial in a tumultuous market. An agent must understand the uniqueness of your property, but have the experience and fortitude to price your property right from the start.
LESSON:
Homeowners emotional attachment to their home prevents them from objectively assessing an accurate picture of what it is really worth to prospective buyers.
OBSERVATION: The free market forces are efficient, and ultimately any home is only worth what a willing-able-motivated buyer is willing to pay in a given time period. With new designs, technology, and even globalization of building materials, new construction continues to apply competitive pressure on resale homes. With the changes in the market the past two years, you do not get to sell at 2005 prices AND buy at 2007 prices.

As we begin our 2007 Fall PARADE OF HOMES annual event, we had about 1,000 people in our 7 model homes this past weekend. Oh, there is always the “paint color” and “decorating ideas” shoppers, but by and large, the vast majority of the people we met have a desire to purchase a new home in the next weeks or months.

Our typical client has live in their home for 5-15 years, and has noticed a lot more for sale signs hanging around their neighborhood this year. The folks with signs in their yards do not give a lot of glowing reports on the process or progress either.

Questions/Comments:
1) Why aren’t homes selling? And the ones that do sell, seem to take so long.
2) Is the price of real estate falling? Has that ever happened before? I thought real estate was a good safe investment.
3) Why would anyone buy a home in this terrible market condition? Let’s wait it out.

To answer these questions, we will (try to) leave emotion out of the way as much as is possible. I will offer some facts that may contradict some headlines - for good and bad. We will consider some conventional wisdom played against what seems to be true at the street level. here we go.

1) Homes are selling, and the homes that sell do not take very long to sell.
On any given day in the Twin Cities metro area, 200 - 400 +/- homes are sold and closed, and it happened quickly and for near asking price. Facts:
Zip Code   Days on Market     Selling price % of ask
55432       58                        97.4%     Fridley
55433       68                        99.2%     Coon Rapids
55311       66                        97.7%     Maple Grove
55422       51                        98.4%     Robbinsdale
55443       59                        98.1%     Brooklyn Park
55126       65                        97.5%     Shoreview/North Oaks
55112       66                        98.0%     New Brighton/Arden Hills

Source: R-MLS Market watch report - 2nd Quarter 2007.

MESSAGE: 
Homes THAT SELL do so rather quickly, and for about full price.
LESSON:
A nice home, priced right, always sells in a short time if marketed well.
OBSERVATION:
The free market is amazingly efficient at bringing real buyers together with motivated sellers. Commodity booms are known to bring buyers/gamblers/speculators/dreamers together with sellers and they will ultimately bid up the commodity to a frothy bust. The top 1/4 or 1/3 of the “head on the beer” glass will always settle back down to the actual fluid level. 2005 and early 2006 was just the foam at the top of the mug. It is gone now. face up to it. The free market is doing just what we all want it to do (to our neighbor anyway) and correcting excesses.

2) Real estate prices have come down, and are always in a state of flux. Real estate ebbs and flows, and over time, in a good location, with a healthy economy, will return 3% - 4% annual returns - OVER TIME.

If you are honest about things, most residential real estate you have owned proved this true. Oh sure, from 2004-2005 a few “gamblers” made some money flipping a property in the sunbelt somewhere, but that is not normal, nor long lived. Like any investment, returns are better some years, negative in others, and fairly steady when looked at in 5-10 year increments.

Our new homes have come down in price almost 13% in the past 12 months. This has been through a combination of reduced costs of labor & materials, engineered savings in structure & design, and reduced profit margins. 

MESSAGE:
Real estate prices have come WAY down from 2005 peak.
LESSON:
If the everyone at the block party is saying they are excited about how much their home value has increased this year, we are probably at a market top.
OBSERVATION:
As national and large regional builders have driven prices down in new construction it has now put pressure on resale homes. Held for 5 years or more, real estate continues to be a good, conservative, safe place to earn low single digit returns while enjoying a nice place to live.

3) If you are a move-up buyer (new home more expensive than current home) you will not find a better time to sell-buy a home.

This is where contrarian thinking is needed. If, and it is a big IF, you can find a nice home for sale you like, AND the SELLER IS REALISTICALLY PRICED TO SELL, grab it. Assuming that the market has adjusted by a % amount, (let’s say 10% to keep it simple) then your $350,000 home should be down $35,000, and the new $750,000 home is down $75,000. Why wouldn’t that be good for you? Funny, when the opposite was true in 2004 (that the market had appreciated 10%) buyers were stampeding to get in to our models to pay us $75,000 more for our new home because they could $35,000 more for their resale. You explain that one to me.

MESSAGE: Just like in the stock market, the best time to buy is when everyone else (conventional thinkers) are saying you are crazy to do so. Just ask Warren Buffet.
LESSON: When buying AND selling a home, the difference is the ONLY number that really matters. Find the BEST PROFESSIONAL you can and follow their advice. Don not use your cousin’s roomate’s brother-in-law because he is nice and will do a cut-rate commission - you will get cut-rate service at best.
OBSERVATION: Most people in the home market cannot see past the value, or hoped for value of their current residence, and are so emotionally involved with their residence that they cannot assess its reasonable value nor can they consider the whole transaction cost. For some reason, we all think our home is worth more than every onther home on the street.


Median price of real estate - what does it REALLY mean?

Median price of real estate falls 1.2% in Minneapolis & St. Paul during the 2nd quarter . . . .

It seems like at least 2-3 times a week we see or hear a headline like this that is representing that real estate VALUES have dropped a percent or two in our neighborhoods. The BLUNT REALITY is that real estate prices in your neighborhood have dropped much more than that.Webster says:
MEDIAN
Function: noun
Etymology: Middle English mediane, from Late Latin mediana (vena) median (vein), from feminine of Latin medianus in the middle, central, from medius middle — more at MID
1 : a medial part (as a vein or nerve)
2 a : a value in an ordered set of values below and above which there is an equal number of values or which is the arithmetic mean of the two middle values if there is no one middle number.
So what we are having reported is that the “center point” of the actual homes sold has moved lower. The truth of this statistic is that it probably has little to do with values, and the rise or fall of them. Let’s consider two examples;
#1 
Median price in Anoka County fell from $250,000 to $247,500 in a period. It will be reported that home values have dropped 1.0%. All the statistic actually indicates is that an equal number of homes were sold above & below $247,500. If all these homes had APPRECIATED in value 10% during the measured period, the report is unchanged. Conversely, if all these homes DEPRECIATED 10% during the measured period, the report is unchanged. And truthfully, there is not yet a way to measure either of those two scenarios.
#2
A new housing development opens up in Blaine like Club West. The builders presell 40 units, and then start construction on another 60 units. By the time the presold units are completed and ready for occupancy, the builders have signed 25 more contracts. Over a short period of maybe a month or less, they will actually CLOSE on 65 units at an average price of $185,000. This one community alone will force the MEDIAN price for Blaine down drastically - remember, the median indicates that an equal number of homes were sold above and below that price line. Property values in Blaine may be drastically rising, falling, or level, and you would not know it from the MEDIAN reporting.

MESSAGE: Median price is not anything what the general media represents it to be. It is clearly trying to show what is happening to values, and there is no way it can do so.
LESSON: Be careful what you accept at face value. Dig deeper. Ask why. Ask why again.
OBSERVATION: Even allowing that “what bleeds leads”, the media cannot report the reality of the price drops that have occurred in the marketplace. They are not using the correct tools to assess the facts on the ground. They have represented that it is in the 1% - 3% range but it is probably closer to 10% - 15% range for our local market. As a seller of 75 new and used homes annually, I know by real closed sales what the facts are.
I invite comments on this post - agree or disagree?

Welcome to the newHOMEguy’s Blog! This blog will provide you with valuable information, tips, and general insight into the real estate market the suburbs of Minneapolis and St. Paul, MN.

If you like to think past the media talking heads and get down to the lesser publicized facts, read on. I am a contrarian by nature, and I like to ask why. Ant d then ask it again.

Generally, the statistics are misused, and not for bad motives. My next post will address one of the very worst uses of a statistic - MEDIAN PRICE.